Comments on: Best forecasting method for your supply chain? http://www.supplychainview.com/blog/2006/11/best-forecasting-method-for-your-supply-chain/ A closer look at the supply chain Sun, 02 Oct 2011 13:34:21 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.1 By: Supply Chain View » 10 ways to reduce inventory and improve service – part 1 http://www.supplychainview.com/blog/2006/11/best-forecasting-method-for-your-supply-chain/comment-page-1/#comment-36 Supply Chain View » 10 ways to reduce inventory and improve service – part 1 Thu, 23 Aug 2007 18:45:13 +0000 http://www.supplychainview.com/blog/?p=4#comment-36 [...] have written about this before in my post Best forecasting method for your supply chain. Better forecasting means lower safety stocks and/or higher levels of availability. It also means a [...] [...] have written about this before in my post Best forecasting method for your supply chain. Better forecasting means lower safety stocks and/or higher levels of availability. It also means a [...]

]]> By: Martin Arrand http://www.supplychainview.com/blog/2006/11/best-forecasting-method-for-your-supply-chain/comment-page-1/#comment-7 Martin Arrand Fri, 02 Mar 2007 15:32:58 +0000 http://www.supplychainview.com/blog/?p=4#comment-7 I've just read a nice gloss on my comment that "your planners are going to struggle with very sophisticated forecast methods, even if they are heavily automated". Hopp & Spearman in Factory Physics (to which I'll be referring a lot in the next few weeks, I think) quote the maxim that "people would rather live with a problem they cannot solve than accept a solution they do not understand". I’ve just read a nice gloss on my comment that “your planners are going to struggle with very sophisticated forecast methods, even if they are heavily automated”.

Hopp & Spearman in Factory Physics (to which I’ll be referring a lot in the next few weeks, I think) quote the maxim that “people would rather live with a problem they cannot solve than accept a solution they do not understand”.

]]> By: Supply Chain View » Forecasting intermittent demand for spare parts – review of JORS paper http://www.supplychainview.com/blog/2006/11/best-forecasting-method-for-your-supply-chain/comment-page-1/#comment-5 Supply Chain View » Forecasting intermittent demand for spare parts – review of JORS paper Fri, 26 Jan 2007 10:22:17 +0000 http://www.supplychainview.com/blog/?p=4#comment-5 [...] Hua and colleagues have used a fairly simple autoregressive model here, but the comments of D.S.G. Pollock I quoted in an earlier post are still pertinent: autoregression, particularly with small numbers of observations, should be treated with a lot of care. The authors themselves note that their method requires a “that the number of non-zero demands in the historical data set should not be too small”. [...] [...] Hua and colleagues have used a fairly simple autoregressive model here, but the comments of D.S.G. Pollock I quoted in an earlier post are still pertinent: autoregression, particularly with small numbers of observations, should be treated with a lot of care. The authors themselves note that their method requires a “that the number of non-zero demands in the historical data set should not be too small”. [...]

]]> By: Supply Chain View » Simple demonstration of slow and fast SKU forecasting http://www.supplychainview.com/blog/2006/11/best-forecasting-method-for-your-supply-chain/comment-page-1/#comment-4 Supply Chain View » Simple demonstration of slow and fast SKU forecasting Fri, 05 Jan 2007 14:48:13 +0000 http://www.supplychainview.com/blog/?p=4#comment-4 [...] In December 2006 I presented seminar for the CILT on Supply Chain Inventory Management, and this very simple demonstration comes from that presentation. It is designed to highlight the different levels of forecast accuracy that we can achieve for slow and fast SKUs. (As I mentioned in my post from 29 Nov 06, estimating forecast accuracy is very important.) Anyone can do this - all you need is a standard pack of playing cards. [...] [...] In December 2006 I presented seminar for the CILT on Supply Chain Inventory Management, and this very simple demonstration comes from that presentation. It is designed to highlight the different levels of forecast accuracy that we can achieve for slow and fast SKUs. (As I mentioned in my post from 29 Nov 06, estimating forecast accuracy is very important.) Anyone can do this – all you need is a standard pack of playing cards. [...]

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